Who gains and loses? CBO/JCT distribution estimate

What It Does

CBO allocates taxes, transfers and spending effects across income groups for 2026–2034.

Status: Published analysis of enacted P.L. 119-21, using January 2025 baseline.

Official congressional analysis — not a law

Potential Effects

Possible Benefits

Average annual resource gains: fifth income decile $800; sixth $1,200; highest $13,600, in 2025 dollars.

Potential Trade-Offs

Lowest decile loses about $1,200 annually (3.1%), mainly from reduced Medicaid/SNAP. These group averages do not describe every family.

Potential effects are analysis, not guaranteed household outcomes. The interactive guide retains the full income and scenario breakdown where evidence is available.

Original Sources